Land use, not climate change, drives changing fire dynamics in the South American Chaco

Detailed reconstruction of fire dynamics back to the 1980s - based on the landsat programme - shows: it burns a lot more during drier years.

BUT: fires in dry years are still mostly associated with agriculture - either agricultural expansion (= deforestation) or agricultural management. Drier years increase the likelihood of agricultural fires, but lower the likelihood of other fires - see the figures in the paper.

Explanations: fire as a cheap way to deforest (easier during drought years), fires sometimes ’escape’ into nearby forests. Management fires (e.g., ‘cleaning’ pastures) also escape into nearby forests (more likely during dry years).

What can be done? - better fire management (avoid using fire as a mgmt tool during risky times) - better fire monitoring - better law enforcement (to prevent illegal fires)

See the full paper here: Baumann, M., Maillard, O., Gasparri, I., Burton, J., Pizarro, G. G. & Kuemmerle, T. (2026), Fire dynamics in the South American Chaco and their link to agriculture and drought. Nature Sustainability (2026).