No Farm, No Forest, No reclaimed access

We investigate failed land investments that led to deforestation. Millions of hectares of tropical woodlands are being cleared for agricultural projects that are not productive. Our new study reviews land investments that failed and led to deforestation to understand why they failed, how they deforested and how this process changed access by local communities. This resulted in three main findings:

1. Projects failed largely because they faced resistance from local communities, highlighting major misalignments.

2. Deforestation was often a step toward production, but surprisingly, a large part of these cases included illegal timber harvesting.

3. Most of the projects targeted areas used by local, forest-dependent communities. Despite failure, some of these communities’ lost access to lands in the process, indicating that even failed projects can result in land grabs.

Failed land investments are a wake-up call for governments to:

Reevaluate priorities in land governance

Enhance government enforcement

Capabilities and prioritize and amplify local voices.

See the full paper here: Buchadas, A., Kuemmerle, T., Baumann, M., Liu, J., Kronenburg García, A., Mastrangelo, E. M., Le Polain de Waroux, Y., Pratzer, M., Scheidel, A. and Meyfroidt, P. (2026), Unpacking the role of failed land investments in driving tropical deforestation. Ecology and Society 31(2):2.