Commodity frontiers expand more slowly into tropical forests where forest smallholders are present

Tropical deforestation remains one of the greatest challenges for global sustainability. In deforestation frontier regions, diverse actors, including smallholders, Indigenous communities, or agribusinesses, make decisions that determine whether forests persist or disappear. Yet, how the interactions and competition among these actors influence the fate of forests is unclear.

Using data from nearly 1 million km² across two major deforestation hotspots, we show that forests are lost more slowly where forest-dwelling smallholders are present – even as agriculture expands. Because agribusinesses mainly expand onto land already used by smallholders, securing smallholders’ land rights can both support livelihoods and protect forests and biodiversity.

See the full paper here: Pratzer, M., Meyfroidt, P., Vellejos, M. and Kuemmerle, T. (2026), Commodity frontiers expand more slowly into tropical forests where forest smallholders are present. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 123 (7): e2528453123.